Uu doppler weather radar in motion4/1/2024 ![]() ![]() A simple hodograph technique is presented that shows promising skill in predicting the motion of deviant tornadoes, which, upon “occlusion,” detach from the parent storm’s updraft centroid and advect leftward or rearward by the low-level wind. A sample of 102 leftward deviant tornadic low-level mesocyclones was tracked via WSR-88D and assessed for their potential predictability. As a result, such deviations go largely unanticipated by forecasters. While a few hypotheses exist as to why tornadoes deviate, none have been tested for their potential use in operational forecasting and nowcasting. This has the potential to present an extreme challenge to warning lead time, and the spread of timely, accurate information to broadcasters and emergency managers. Though uncommon, some tornadoes have been noted to take sudden left turns from their previous path. The paths of tornadoes have long been a subject of fascination since the meticulously drawn damage tracks by Dr. The mean polygon is assumed to be roughly oriented along the mean storm motion, though in each case the polygons will not always be oriented with storm motion, nor this exact size. (left) The ground-relative panel displays the north-relative motions of the leftward deviant tornadoes, while (right) the storm-relative panel displays the motions of the tornadoes relative to the mean storm motion. The paths of tornadoes were chosen to emanate from the center of the illustrative warning polygon, thus may not represent the true polygon-relative motion (especially in the ground-relative figure). On each panel, the composite mean storm-based tornado warning polygon (magenta) is displayed, along with the mean storm motion (black arrow). ![]() These tracks are colored by NWS warning performance assessment, with green tracks indicating good performance, dark orange tracks indicating fair performance, red tracks indicating poor performance, and gray tracks indicating a miss (no tornado warning issued). The leftward deviant portions of all 102 tornadoes examined.
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